Goodbye to a Year of Ill Winds
The sage that coined the phrase “It’s an ill wind that blows no good” would have a rough time selling his proposition in Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, or Georgia these days. For many, last year will go down in their family histories as a year of misery and sorrow over the loss of loved ones, friends, and neighbors—not to mention the homes and possessions that marked a lifetime of striving and sacrifice.
I don’t care how good a year 2005 was for many of us—for the construction industry throughout much of the country it was a banner year—I’m glad to slam its door shut and bid it good riddance. So what does 2006 hold in store?
Dusting Off the Crystal Ball
Those who read my prognostications last year are no doubt in awe of their accuracy, so here I am with a second helping of wisdom from my local legion of New Age seers, once again headed by Madame Natasha; Ace, my tarot card–reading barber; and this year’s newcomer—a hamster psychic who accurately predicted Katrina’s landfall three days after the event. So hang onto your shovels, folks, here’s what’s in store for 2006.
Things We Still Can Count On
- While we live in a time of incredibly exciting change, we can still flip on the news and wonder if it’s worth going on.
- It’s not inflation we’re experiencing; it’s just that the things we buy are getting more expensive.
- We know that the margin for error in the way we conduct our business is shrinking at a rate matched inversely by the number of ones and zeros our computers can crunch in an average nanosecond.
- We know that the number of demands placed on us by regulators at every level of government continues to grow at a rate limited only by the ability of the various taxing agencies to take our money and turn it against us.
- We know that the weather—whatever it is—is what it has never been before.
Things We Can Be Pretty Sure Of
- Despite the dire predictions of last year’s doom-and-gloom brigade, it looks as if the nation’s economy intends to stay out of the tank for another year.
- While we may see a slow-down in housing starts as the year wears down, commercial construction appears to be on the upswing.
- With the exception of higher-than-average temperatures and lower-than-average rainfall in the Southwest, and with above-average rainfall in Florida, NOAA’s long-range weather-guessers see 2006 as depressingly normal for a change.
- Although most engine manufacturers are staying mum about price increases for meeting 2007 emissions regulations, there’s little doubt that we can look forward to some pretty significant sticker shock for trucks and equipment in the coming year. The good news is that it may be mild compared to what’s in store for 2010 and beyond, when the air coming out the exhaust will have to be cleaner than what’s going in.
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Challenges
Out of the 30 million or 40 million challenges that wander around the landscape with little regard for how we feel about them, I’d like to point to two that we need to do something about:
- If you didn’t like the unpredictability of last year’s fuel prices, you might suspect that, tame as they seem at the moment, there’s a lot more excitement to come. So long as the bulk of our fuel supply is in the hands of people whose interests are often inimical to our own, the likelihood of roller-coaster fuel costs—and, worse still, shortages—exists. It is not enough to say that we’ll be a little more careful in our fuel usage—perhaps save a gallon or few through better management—when you consider the rate at which worldwide demand is increasing. We need to help our elected officials make the development of new and optimally renewable sources of energy a national priority while we still have the maneuvering room to do so.
- Despite a population rapidly approaching the 7 billion mark—five times what it was only a century ago—we’re faced with a worldwide shortage of qualified equipment operators and technicians. It’s one thing for this to exist in what are considered “emerging” areas of the world, but the situation is little better here … and not apt to improve given an educational climate that downplays the importance of and opportunities in vocational pursuits. It’s time to confront our nation’s education establishment with its critical shortcomings in order to meet the demands of the 21st century.
In spite of some dire predictions to the contrary, my seers promise me that 2006 will not see the sky fall … but that you will still want to wear your hardhat on the job site.
Author's Bio: John Trotti is the Editor of Grading & Excavation Contractor magazine.
January-Febraury 2006
Goodbye to a Year of Ill Winds
The sage that coined the phrase “It’s an ill wind that blows no good” would have a rough time selling his proposition in Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida, or Georgia these days. For many, last year will go down in their family histories as a year of misery and sorrow over the loss of loved ones, friends, and neighbors—not to mention the homes and possessions that marked a lifetime of striving and sacrifice.I don’t care how good a year 2005 was for many of us—for the construction industry throughout much of the country it was a banner year—I’m glad to slam its door shut and bid it good riddance. So what does 2006 hold in store?
Dusting Off the Crystal Ball
Those who read my prognostications last year are no doubt in awe of their accuracy, so here I am with a second helping of wisdom from my local legion of New Age seers, once again headed by Madame Natasha; Ace, my tarot card–reading barber; and this year’s newcomer—a hamster psychic who accurately predicted Katrina’s landfall three days after the event. So hang onto your shovels, folks, here’s what’s in store for 2006.
Things We Still Can Count On
- While we live in a time of incredibly exciting change, we can still flip on the news and wonder if it’s worth going on.
- It’s not inflation we’re experiencing; it’s just that the things we buy are getting more expensive.
- We know that the margin for error in the way we conduct our business is shrinking at a rate matched inversely by the number of ones and zeros our computers can crunch in an average nanosecond.
- We know that the number of demands placed on us by regulators at every level of government continues to grow at a rate limited only by the ability of the various taxing agencies to take our money and turn it against us.
- We know that the weather—whatever it is—is what it has never been before.
Things We Can Be Pretty Sure Of
- Despite the dire predictions of last year’s doom-and-gloom brigade, it looks as if the nation’s economy intends to stay out of the tank for another year.
- While we may see a slow-down in housing starts as the year wears down, commercial construction appears to be on the upswing.
- With the exception of higher-than-average temperatures and lower-than-average rainfall in the Southwest, and with above-average rainfall in Florida, NOAA’s long-range weather-guessers see 2006 as depressingly normal for a change.
- Although most engine manufacturers are staying mum about price increases for meeting 2007 emissions regulations, there’s little doubt that we can look forward to some pretty significant sticker shock for trucks and equipment in the coming year. The good news is that it may be mild compared to what’s in store for 2010 and beyond, when the air coming out the exhaust will have to be cleaner than what’s going in.
Challenges
Out of the 30 million or 40 million challenges that wander around the landscape with little regard for how we feel about them, I’d like to point to two that we need to do something about:
- If you didn’t like the unpredictability of last year’s fuel prices, you might suspect that, tame as they seem at the moment, there’s a lot more excitement to come. So long as the bulk of our fuel supply is in the hands of people whose interests are often inimical to our own, the likelihood of roller-coaster fuel costs—and, worse still, shortages—exists. It is not enough to say that we’ll be a little more careful in our fuel usage—perhaps save a gallon or few through better management—when you consider the rate at which worldwide demand is increasing. We need to help our elected officials make the development of new and optimally renewable sources of energy a national priority while we still have the maneuvering room to do so.
- Despite a population rapidly approaching the 7 billion mark—five times what it was only a century ago—we’re faced with a worldwide shortage of qualified equipment operators and technicians. It’s one thing for this to exist in what are considered “emerging” areas of the world, but the situation is little better here … and not apt to improve given an educational climate that downplays the importance of and opportunities in vocational pursuits. It’s time to confront our nation’s education establishment with its critical shortcomings in order to meet the demands of the 21st century.
In spite of some dire predictions to the contrary, my seers promise me that 2006 will not see the sky fall … but that you will still want to wear your hardhat on the job site.